If you’re an “X Factor” USA viewer and a CeCe Frey fan, don’t expect her to be around much longer. Given the fact that she placed next-to-last in the first ever reveal of where contestants place according to the popular vote (on the Top 13 results show) and only remains on the show because Judge Simon Cowell deadlocked the judges vote instead of kicking Frey to the curb for her horrendous karaoke version of Survivor’s “Eye of the Tiger,” her days in the competition are numbered. Professional oddsmakers think so as well…
According to professional oddsmakers’ sites Bovada and Oddschecker, Frey has the longest odds of all the Top 12 finalists. Bovada gives her 50/1 odds of winning, but bet365 at Oddschecker puts her at 80/1 odds.
Her closest competitor and most likely candidate to join her on the Top 12 results show in the bottom two is Arin Ray, one of Judge Britney Spears’ Teens. He finished next-to-last in the popular vote and with the odds prognosticators as well. Bovada has him at 30/1 odds, while bet365 has him posting 66/1 odds to win. He’s even tied with Frey on one list, 188BET (at 40/1).
So unless there’s a double elimination from the Top 12, young Arin looks safe for a week. Maybe. Remember: the final choice comes down to the judges and they could very easily choose someone other than CeCe Frey to go home — and that’s only if Frey is one of the bottom two, of course.
But it looks like a good bet that she will be — in the bottom two and voted off the show…
So who has the best odds of winning after the Top 12 reshuffle (reshuffle because of the readmission of Diamond White into the contest and the loss of Jason Brock, an original member of the Top 12, on the Top 13 results show)? According to the oddsmakers, that distinction would go to Spears’ 13-year-old protege, Carly Rose Sonenclar. She’s projected to win Season 2 across the board.
But what about Tate Stevens? Didn’t his topping the popular vote count list give him a shot at the win in the eyes of the oddsmakers. It did. Where the blue collar cowboy from Missouri placed in middle of the pack in the Top 16 forecast, the reshuffle and the introduction of the vote board now makes him a solid second in the oddsmakers. (Oddly enough, CeCe Frey placed in the Top 4 on some lists, even though she had worked hard on her mean girl image and even prompted her mentor to label her “unlikable.”)
And who looks to compete with Sonenclar and Stevens in the finale? At present, the popular vote has Vino Alan in third, but the oddsmakers have in fourth, just missing the finale — except for Bovada, which has him third. The readmitted Diamond White is third on all the Oddsschecker lists. (However, she is fifth on Bovada’s with Emblem3 taking the fourth spot.)
The strongest team might appear to be Spears’ Teens simply because she has four finalists left in the fray. The weakest might seem to be L. A. Reid’s Over 25s because there are only two of them left. However, since both Spears and Reid place two of their proteges within the Top 4 on most lists, it would appear that they’re nearly even in relative strength. And where the Teens have Sonenclar in the lead with the odds people, the Over 25s have Stevens at the top of the popular vote.
(Watch Tate Stevens perform the Bon Jovi classic “Wanted Dead Or Alive”.)
And in the end it will be that popular vote that makes the difference in who gets awarded that $5 million prize and recording contract.
Just don’t bet on CeCe Frey and the Young Adults. Judge Demi Lovato not only has the finalist with the least amount of popular votes, but she has three (which is all of her team’s contestants) of the bottom four on all the Oddschecker lists, three of the bottom five at Bovada, and three of the bottom six on the popular vote list.
‘X Factor’ USA Season 2 Odds To Win (from Bovada.com)
12. CeCe Frey, Young Adults — 50/1
11. Arin Ray, Teens — 40/1
10. Paige Thomas, Young Adults — 30/1
9. Beatrice Miller, Teens — 18/1
8. Jennel Garcia, Young Adults — 15/1
7. Lyric 145, Groups — 14/1
6. Fifth Harmony, Groups — 10/1
5. Diamond White, Teens — 13/2
4. Emblem3, Groups — 6/1
3. Vino Alan, Over 25s — 9/2
2. Tate Stevens, Over 25s — 4/1
1. Carly Rose Sonenclar, Teens — 9/5
Can CeCe Frey and Arin Ray beat the odds and make the Top 10? Don’t bet on it. Either way, “X Factor” will pare the number of finalists down after the Wednesday evening performance show, announcing the voting results the following evening. Both shows begin at 8 p.m. (EST) on Fox Television.