I have not changed my mind about the forecast for New Year’s Eve, as the approach of a 500MB shortwave, cold front and moisture fetch from the south and west will bring another round of clouds and rain into the Houston metro. I suspect that the heavier rainfall will wait until (naturally) late at night, with cumulonimbi firing along the frontal structure as the boundary (very) slowly slips southeastward. There may be enough instability for a few cases of severe weather. But if the NAM version is correct, then training echoes with flooding rainfall are going to be the main issue. I do not think that the precipitation will fully subside in southeastern Texas until about 2 p.m.
With additional energy and cold air dropping south from the Prairie Provinces, and perhaps another impulse moving out of Mexico along the subtropical jet stream, I think that there is a fair chance that cloudiness and rain chances will linger in Texas through January 3. The rainfall may be nothing more than drizzle with the occasional appearance of moderate-intensity showers from Tuesday night until Thursday afternoon. There remains an outside chance that the atmosphere could cool enough for sleet or freezing drizzle early Thursday in the northern fringe of the Houston metro (places like Montgomery, Conroe and Cleveland on north). But will enough moisture be present? I suspect that the chill in the air will again be the major annoyance.
Bright sunshine will not return to SE TX until Friday. Next weekend actually looks pretty decent, as we shake off the cold after a frosty Friday morning. The overall trend for next week, as of now, looks to favor a major warm spell for most locations east of the Rocky Mountains and Texas reaching well into the 70s.
But those warm thoughts must wait. For now, that wintry touch is back in the air.
Texas Meteorological Satellite Images – GOES — Texas Commission on Environment
Mosaic NEXRAD For U.S.
College Of DuPage Severe Weather Warnings Page
Monday, New Year’s Eve: Morning fog; then mostly cloudy with periods of showers and drizzle. Milder. Highs 65 Conroe to 69 Dickinson
Monday Night, New Year’s Eve Night: Showers and thunderstorms, becoming heavy at times by midnight. A severe storm is possible before sunrise.
Tuesday, New Year’s Day: Heavy showers and thunderstorms ending in early afternoon. Cloudy, breezy and colder after morning highs 68 The Woodlands to 72 Webster
Tuesday Night, New Year’s Night: Cloudy, breezy and chilly. Showers or drizzle are possible along the Gulf Coast. Lows 36 Spring to 40 Kemah
Wednesday: Cloudy and chilly with occasional showers or sprinkles. Highs 46 Klein to 50 Bacliff
Thursday: Cloudy, breezy and chilly with occasional showers or sprinkles. Some of the precipitation may be mixed with sleet along and north of FM 1488 and TX 242. Clearing after sunset. High 44, Low 34
Friday: Sunny and chilly. High 52, Low 28
Saturday: Mostly sunny and milder. High 61, Low 34