It doesn’t take long in the game of Survivor, for power to shift. Once in control of the game, last week Pete found himself out the door when he failed to convince Skupin to blindside Malcolm and his Idol. Now there are seven players remaining, one of which – Abi- is seemingly without a shot in hell at winning the million or even advancing through the next Tribal Council.
But Pete’s exit and Abi playing her Idol were not the biggest developments from last week’s episode. That is reserved for the move – or non-move – of Jonathan Penner, denying an offer from Skupin and Lisa to create a Final 4 deal. What was Penner thinking? Does he have another plan in place? Here is a guy who was literally a dead man walking almost from the very beginning of the game, a man without a true ally. What could possibly make him turn down a Final 4 offer?
That decision could prove to be Penner’s undoing, with the preview for tonight’s episode showing Penner at odds with Lisa. The episode description from CBS also reveals some information that could back up this theory and spell trouble for Jonathan. Here is what they had to say:
Episode 11 – “Hell Hath Frozen Over” – LISA FACES INNER TURMOIL WHEN SHE IS FORCED TO CHOOSE BETWEEN EMOTIONAL AND STRATEGIC ALLIANCES, ON “SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES,” WEDNESDAY, NOV. 28 — Castaways exhaust their funds on tasty rewards while one generous castaway makes two bids for his tribemates during the hearty food auction, on SURVIVOR: PHILIPPINES, Wednesday, Nov. 28 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
Analysis. So one of two things are probably at play tonight. Lisa, we know has had a tough battle internally all season, torn between doing “what is right” and what “needs to be done.” Her “emotional” alliance is with Jonathan, whom they have shown her having many deep conversations with. Strategically speaking then, Lisa’s biggest dilemma will come from choosing between Penner and Abi.
Why would Lisa strategically want to vote Penner out? Assume Abi wins Immunity. If Abi is safe, that would force Skupin and Lisa, along with Malcolm and Denise, to turn on Carter or Penner. Penner of course is the likely target since Carter isn’t seen as a major threat to win. So regardless, if Abi wins Immunity tonight, Penner will unfortunately probably be sent packing if Lisa chooses to go that route.
With Abi being immune, could Skupin and Lisa also choose to side with Penner and Carter, to take out Malcolm or Denise? This seems the unlikeliest of scenarios, but at some point the others will realize that they’ll have to not only break up Malcolm and Denise, but they will at least need to flush Malcolm’s Idol.
And if Abi doesn’t win Immunity, then why would she have “inner turmoil?” Shouldn’t it be an easy decision? It could be possible that Skupin and Lisa view Abi as an ideal third person to go to the end with.
Want to hear the craziest of all scenarios? Even though Abi is all alone, her original Tandang roots put her a fraction of an inch closer to Lisa and Skupin than the others. Skupin and Lisa could inform Penner and Carter to vote for Abi, turning around quickly to tell Malcolm and Denise to blindside Penner, since Abi is not a huge threat at the moment. In this scenario, with two votes going to Abi and two votes going to Penner, Skupin, Lisa and Abi could then blindside Malcolm and his Idol. It would also leave blood on Denise’s hands because she would have just voted for Penner. Brilliant? Yes. Likely? Doubtful.
Regardless of what goes down, it is becoming clear that Lisa and Skupin seem to be calling all of the shots in the game right now. Abi has no chance of winning, but don’t count out her chances of remaining in the game until the end.
Lastly, Jeff Probst tweeted this week: “Next week is all about strategy and a new round of big moves!” So we’re in for an intense episode no matter which way you slice it.
What do you think will happen? Is Abi the obvious choice? If she wins Immunity, what then? And could this be Skupin and Lisa’s chance to flip the game on Malcolm and Denise?
Be sure to check back tonight for my full recap and analysis of tonight’s episode!
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