President Obama is winning nearly every swing state poll against Mitt Romney less than 72 hours before voters start casting ballots next Tuesday. The polls add evidence to the narrative that Obama has the momentum in the final days of the campaign, and that have already sewn up an Electoral Collage majority. Obama is winning 21 of the 27 swing state polls released over the last 72 hours. Romney is winning only three of the swing state polls, with another three polls showing ties.
Ohio is the most important swing state with its 18 electoral votes. The Romney campaign has conceded the fact that they cannot win without Ohio. Obama could conceivably win without Ohio, but he would need to win Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada in exchange. Today, a poll from NBC News/WSJ/Marist showed Obama with a six point lead in Ohio (51 percent to 45 percent). Yesterday, a CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama with a three point lead (50 percent to 47 percent). Rasmussen Reports is the only pollster showing Romney with a chance in Ohio, and they have the race tied. Obama now has a 2.9 point lead in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls from Ohio.
Romney also needs to win Florida to have any chance of getting 270 electoral votes. However, an NBC News/WSJ/Marist poll showed Obama with a two point lead in the Sunshine State (49 percent to 47 percent). The good news for Romney is that another poll from Tampa Bay Times/Bay 9 News/Miami Herald showed Romney with a six point lead (51 percent to 45 percent). A poll from Reuters/Ipsos has the race tied at 47 percent in Florida. Romney now has a 1.4 point lead in the RCP average of poll from Florida.
In Virginia, the Reuters/Ipsos poll has Obama leading with 48 percent of likely voters compared to 45 percent for Romney. Yesterday a poll from We Ask America showed Obama winning 49 percent to 48 percent. Romney maintains a small 0.3 point lead in the RCP average in Virginia.
In Colorado the Reuters/Ipsos poll has Obama up by two points (47 percent to 45 percent). Another poll from the Dever Post/Survey USA showed Obama also leading by two points (47 percent to 45 percent). Obama now has a 1.0 point lead in the RCP average of polls in Colorado.
In Iowa, a Des Moines Register poll released today showed Obama leading by five points over Romney (47 percent to 42 percent). Yesterday, a poll from Gravis Marketing showed Obama with a four point lead (49 percent to 45 percent). Obama has a 2.5 point lead in the RCP average of polls in Iowa.
Finally, in New Hampshire a poll from WMUR/UNH showed the race tied at 48 percent. A poll released yesterday from Gravis Marketing showed Obama winning by one point (50 percent to 49 percent) and another poll from New England College showed Obama winning New Hampshire by six points (50 percent to 44 percent). Obama now has a 1.5 point edge in the RCP average in New Hampshire.
All these polls seemingly confirm the fact that Obama has a small, yet definitive lead in the key states that will decide the winner of the 2012 presidential election. If Romney is to win, he will need to count on the polls being wrong.