With the Nov. 6th, 2012 elections over, it’s time to analyze the outcome, and decide what to do next; or not to do. For the Northern Dallas area, not much really changed in the political world. Most of the incumbents got re-elected, and life seems to go on as usual for most people.
The re-election of President Obama has stirred up a lot of anxiety among certain groups of die-hard conservatives who are now talking about succession; however, this is most likely premature. While it certainly makes a statement, I tend to agree with Ron Holland at The Daily Bell who calls it “bad politics”.
So what does the future truly hold? For Libertarians in Texas, the future is actually looking up, as they seem to be gaining momentum with the average results for the last 3 presidential elections showing a steady increase in popularity for their candidates:
Each race for 2004, 2008, and 2012, respectively:
- US House races (3-way) – 1.7%, 2.4%, 2.6%
- US House races (2-way) – 6.9%, 13.1%, 17.6%
- Texas House (3-way) – 2.7%, 2.8%, 3.8%
- Texas House (2-way) – 9.7%, 13.4%, 16.2%
- Statewide Judicial races (2-way) – 15.1%, 18.1%, 21.7%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party Presidential candidate, also saw great improvements over previous Libertarian Party Presidential candidates. Gary Johnson ended up getting 1% of the national vote, which was more than double the 0.40% received by Bob Barr in 2008, and more than triple the 0.32% received by Michael Badnarik in 2004.
Personally, I received slightly fewer than 5,700 votes in my race, or about 2.25%. While the percentage is slightly lower than the previous Libertarian to run against the same incumbent, the vote totals are about 50% more, and about a thousand votes higher than in 2008. The reason for this variance is that more people tend to vote in a Presidential election cycle, then the in-between elections. Based on this, if I could improve the vote total by another 50% in 2014, I’d get an estimated 7% of the vote. Certainly still far from a win and less than half of the incumbent’s likely 15%+ lead, but still very good for an alternative party candidate.
Basically this means, that despite his voting record, and a very low congressional approval rating, the incumbent is likely to get reelected until he retires, or a very strong candidate challenges him in a primary election; entry into that contest is anything but trivial. However, when an ideas time has come, it has a tendency to gain popularity exponentially.
If the Republican Party continues to do poorly over the next decade, because they are becoming increasingly more moderate – no longer holding true to small government principles, as in my opinion has been the case for the last couple of decades – then it could create the right environment for a major shift in what two political parties are considered the main players over the coming century; unless we change the game all together.