Raleigh Weather Discussion
A major nor’easter will strengthen today but it will likely spare much of North Carolina any significant effects. There will be some showers in western parts of the state today and a little snow in the northern mountains, but the most NC will see is just continued cold temperatures for the next few days.
It looks like RDU will flirt with the freezing mark again the next two mornings. The GFS/NAM MOS both have RDU at or below freezing both tomorrow and Friday mornings. I am a bit more optimistic that it will occur on Friday then on Thursday, since we may still see some breezy conditions and the high pressure will not be optimally overhead. It will however on Friday morning. I do think RDU will see its first official freeze either tonight or tomorrow night, so if you have tender vegetation bring it in.
We will see a nice warming trend though commence the rest of the week. Temperatures will be near or in excess of 70 by Saturday and this should continue Sunday and Monday with Monday likely the warmest day where temps may make it into the mid 70s.
A cold front will pass through on Tuesday it appears now with scattered showers likely and temperatures a little cooler thanks to the clouds/rain. The front then clears and we should see temperatures close to normal mid to late next week.
Quick Nor’easter Update
First as far as the nor’easter goes, I think a band of 6-12 inches of snow may set up northwest of NYC from northern NJ into SE NY and southern New England. I think the city will see a few inches but the worst snow will be NW of there. Look for 40-50mph winds to batter the NJ/NY coast but the highest winds could be over southeast New England with coastal locations getting 60-70 mph wind gusts this evening. Sorry, I wish I had more time to draw a map and get into this more, but I am traveling this week and it has been difficult to find time.
National Extended Discussion.
In general the ensemble models agree on a pattern that will favor a trough along the west coast of the US and a broad warm ridge across the central and eastern US. This pattern would favor the warmest temperatures with respect to normal to be across the Midwest, Lakes, and Northeast with the Southeast near normal. In general the nation will likely be dominated by Pacific Air and not polar or arctic air.
This pattern looks to extend through Thanksgiving, although the 6z GFS Ensembles did show the warm pattern breaking down around Thanksgiving and a cooler pattern developing. This was however a pretty big change from the 00z run and from the other ensemble guidance so for now it is discounted.
The latest CFS weeklies keep this same general pattern around through early December, and as I mentioned yesterday the Monday ECMWF weeklies keep it around through Thanksgiving week but break the pattern down by early December. So in general I think we stick in a mild pattern through at least Thanksgiving. My winter forecast called for much of the US outside the Southeast to be warmer than normal for December, so I am not too surprised by this pattern and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it stick around through much of December, before a possible colder pattern develops.