Shallow areas of patchy fog this morning will gradually give way to intervals of clouds and sunshine during the day today. A cold front will approach the region tonight, though high pressure to our south will likely keep it at bay, allowing it to pass through the region later Thursday night and into Friday morning. A very dry and stable airmass looks to remain in place over the region, in the low levels of the atmosphere, through the coming few days. Thus, the cold frontal passage is likely to occur with little if any precipitation at best. The only viable source for enhancement of moisture fields look to be lake Ontario, as cold air will once again be funneled southeastward over the lake, increasing the potential for lake effect snow bands in the wake of the frontal passage.
Generally fair and chilly weather looks to persist through the end of the work week, after the frontal passage. The front looks to get hung up to our south, oscillating in the vicinity of the North Carolina coastline, back westward into the central Appalachian Mountains. Meanwhile, another ripple of low pressure rides southward from southwestern Canada by Saturday morning, to be over the northern High Plains. This area of low pressure is forecast to ride quickly eastward to be over the upper Great Lakes by Sunday morning, and into the Canadian Maritime provinces by Monday morning. This subsequent motion looks to drive both a warm front and cold front through the region during this time.
In short, the weekend looks a bit unsettled. Despite the unsettled weather, temperatures look to trend upward, to be above normal by the end of the of the forecast period, thanks to the warm frontal passage, and the system’s cold front not appearing to be all that strong. A more potent system looks to impact the region during the midweek period next week, and this could bring some cooler weather to the region thereafter.
…Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity…
Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High near 40. Northwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Tonight: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low near 25. Light west winds.
Thursday: Partly to mostly sunny and breezy. High near 40. West winds 10-15 MPH.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Low near 25. Light southwest winds.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. High near 35. Light and variable winds.
Saturday: Overcast with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 35 and low near 30.
Sunday: Overcast with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 45 and low near 30.
Monday: Mostly cloudy and mild with a 40 percent chance of rain showers in the morning. High near 50 and low near 35.
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