Weather radar depicted two distinct areas of precipitation over New York State early this morning. One area was quite clearly some lake induced precipitation off of the lee of lake Ontario, that was impacting northern New York State as a due west wind was aiding the efficiency of the lake effect machine this morning.
Another more pronounced area of precipitation, in the form of snow, was slowly overspreading the mid and lower Hudson Valley and the southern Catskills. This precipitation shield was the result of a boundary draped from the southern Plains, north and westward across the Tennessee Valley, to the Virginia coast. A wave of low pressure had formed along this front, over the Virginia and North Carolina border, enhancing precipitation somewhat further to the north. Even though radar did show precipitation falling over the above mentioned area in New York State, much of it was not reaching the ground thus far thanks to dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere, the result of a retreating area of high pressure, located over western New England.
As the morning goes on, some light snow is possible, particularly from the Capital Region south and east. Some minor accumulations may occur across the lower Hudson Valley, Catskills, Taconics, and Berkshire mountains of Western Massachusetts. The Capital Region is not expected to see much in the way of accumulating snows, even though a quick coating is possible in spots.
The storm system responsible for bringing the light snow and flurries to the region today will be well east of Cape Cod by Wednesday morning. This will be followed by building high pressure that will nose northward, from the southeastern states, for Wednesday and Thursday. The predominant wind direction through this period still looks to be from the west and northwest, and thus lake effect snows off of lake Ontario may have to be dealt with from time to time, though by and large, this activity should remain well west and north of the immediate Capital Region.
The end of the work week looks to see a change in the weather pattern across the area. A wave frontal boundary is forecast to be located from the central Plains, eastward to the southern New England coast. Large areas of high pressure, on either side of the boundary, look to restrict the frontal system’s movement, thus turning it into a stationary boundary over the weekend, just south of the Capital Region. Several weak disturbances look to ride along the boundary for the course of the coming weekend, keeping the weather unsettled. Temperatures are forecast to moderate, as the winds become more southwesterly in direction, however, chances for precipitation will be on the increase. This precipitation may be in the form of a mix of rain and snow during the morning hours during the weekend, changing to all rain during the daytime hours, particularly in the urban areas and valley floors.
…Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity…
Today: Lots of clouds with a chance of light snow showers and flurries. High 35-40. Light south to southwest winds early, shifting northwest by afternoon. Chance of snow is 40 percent. Little if any snow accumulation is expected.
Tonight: Variable clouds. Low 25-30. Light northwest winds.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High near 40. West winds 5-10 MPH.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear. Low near 25. West winds 5-10 MPH.
Thursday: Mostly sunny and breezy. High near 40. West winds 10-15 MPH.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. High near 35 and low near 25.
Saturday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 35 and low near 30.
Sunday: Cloudy and breezy with a 40 percent chance of rain and/or snow showers. High near 40 and low near 30.
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