A secondary cold front will pass through the region during the day today. The primary cold front had passed through the region during the overnight hours last night, bringing a brisk northwesterly flow to the area along with some cooler temperatures. High temperatures today will be a good 10 to 15 degrees lower than they were yesterday, which would put them near to slightly below seasonal averages for this time of year. In addition, the flow of colder air over the warm waters of lake Ontario will provide the needed impetus for the production of lake effect cloud and snow shower activity. This activity will be more confined to areas west and north of the Capital Region, though a few of the showers are likely to migrate further westward, and thus some snow shower activity is not out of the question across the area.
A brisk northwesterly flow is anticipated to persist as we head into Sunday. This will keep intervals of clouds and sunshine in the forecast, along with the continued chance of isolated rain and/or snow shower activity. The secondary cold front having passed through the region by this point, forecast high temperatures are expected to continue to trend downward, and the brisk breeze will act as a harbinger of the upcoming winter season.
An area of low pressure looks to develop over the upper Great Lakes Monday morning. Though considerable uncertainty remains concerning the eventual track and evolution of this system, it does seem reasonable to suggest that the Capital Region may see its first accumulating snowfall of the season during the period Tuesday into Wednesday. How much snow accumulates is still in question, and will be answered in later forecasts. Stay tuned!
After the midweek system passes, a true early winter time airmass looks to pay the region the visit by the end of next week. Temperatures look to be running below normal.
..Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity…
Today: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and breezy. A chance of snow and/or rain showers. High near 40. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 30 MPH possible at times. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
Tonight: A slight chance of an evening snow and/or rain shower, otherwise partly cloudy, breezy, and chilly. Low 20-25. Northwest winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
Sunday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and continued breezy. High 35-40. West winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts possible.
Sunday Night: Variable cloudiness. Low 25-30. Light and variable winds.
Monday: Mostly sunny. High near 40. West winds 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds with a 50 percent chance of afternoon rain and/or snow showers. High near 40 and low near 30.
Wednesday: A 50 percent chance of rain and/or snow. High near 35 and low near 25.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, blustery, and cold. High near 35 and low near 20.
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