Sunrise temperatures were generally in the mid to upper 20s this morning, with a few low 20s well inland. A patch of cloudiness early this morning has moved offshore and we are left with sunshine and cool temperatures for this Thursday.
High pressure will dominate our weather into the first half of this weekend. With a cold front approaching Friday we will get into a more southwesterly flow ahead of the front and temperatures will be a few degrees above normal, reaching into the upper 40s. The cold front will push through by Saturday morning with little fanfare. But, it does bring in cooler temperatures Saturday and with low pressure approaching for Sunday it brings up the all important question as to precipitation type.
Sunday and Monday are going to be tricky forecasts. We will get a period of unsettled weather, but timing this is difficult. There will actually be a few weak systems that move south of the New England coast. The first low brings a period of light precipitation Sunday and Sunday night. A cold high pressure system will have set up in Quebec and drains colder air into New England once that cold front has pushed through. So, how cold does it get and will we have snow, rain or a wintry mix? Temperatures will be marginal but the current thinking is a snow and rain mix on the coast to light snow inland, probably west of Route 95. A light accumulation is possible inland but it is way too early to talk about accumulations. It is difficult enough trying to determine the rain to snow line at this point, considering we are four days out from the event.
The precipitation may shut down for a time on Monday before another weak low rides up from the south and delivers more precipitation Monday and Monday night. This time around it appears the coast would have a better chance at all rain, due to a persistent onshore flow off water temperatures in the upper 40s, with inland areas a coin toss on precipitation type.
The big event may hold off until mid week as models are suggesting a strong coastal storm along Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is beyond our five day outlook period and we will discuss this feature in more depth over the weekend. Caution is needed here, as this system has not even developed and its track will ultimately determine our weather fate.
Five Day Forecast:
Thursday: Mostly sunny and seasonably cool. High temperatures in the low 40s. Winds light and variable, becoming southeast this afternoon.
Thursday night: Partly cloudy and not as cold. Lows in the upper 20s to 30 degrees. Winds near calm.
Friday: Mostly sunny and a bit milder. Highs from the mid 40s to near 50 degrees. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
Friday night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. West to northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Sunshine early, followed by increasing clouds. Cooler, with highs in the upper 30s.
Saturday night: Becoming cloudy. Lows in the mid to upper 20’s.
Sunday and Sunday night: A chance of rain and snow on the coast, mostly light snow inland. Cold, highs in the low 30s inland to mid 30s coast, with temperatures remaining steady overnight.
Monday and Monday night: Cloudy, chance of precipitation redeveloping. Mainly rain coast to snow or a wintry mix inland. Highs mid 30s inland to near 40 coastal sections and not changing much overnight.